The most popular sporting event on the planet is finally upon us. Not only will billions of soccer fans tune in to the tournament, but they will also bet on it. Bookmakers expect this year’s World Cup to be the most bet event of the year. Of course, we are planning to get a piece of the action. Here’s a rundown of some of our best bets from each World Cup group:
Group A (Germany, Poland, Ecuador, Costa Rica)
Ecuador will finish 2nd (+330)
Assuming Germany win the group easily, the second qualifying spot will be at stake. Most assume Poland will take second place, but it’s not as straightforward as the odds suggest. Poland lack depth and did not impress in qualifying. As the third best team in South America, don’t underestimate Ecuador’s potential here. Second place is a coin toss between Poland and Ecuador, so get on the value price on the Ecuadorians at +330
Group B (England, Sweden, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago)
Sweden to Ranking (-250)
Sweden was the highest scoring European team in World Cup qualifiers, averaging 3 gpg. Their defense is less impressive, but not disastrous, and they have above average goalkeeping. To progress to the next round, Sweden only needs to get past Paraguay. A loss to England and an easy win over the Trinidadian minnows will be enough for them. But the Swedes are just as capable of beating England and might even surprise with a first-place finish.
Group C (Argentina, Netherlands, Ivory Coast, Serbia and Montenegro)
Serbia and Montenegro to qualify (+225)
The Serbs had by far the best defense of any team in qualifying. It is a strong team, well organized and dangerous on the counterattack. Expect them to thwart favorites the Netherlands and Argentina and get some amazing results.
Group D (Portugal, Mexico, Iran, Angola)
Top Scorer Jared Borgetti (+650)
Iran and Angola may be the scapegoats for this group, and whenever that happens, there’s a good chance of some beat-up games. Mexico’s talismanic striker Jared Borgetti has a natural sense for scoring goals, and with the Mexicans playing a fluid game, he could have several opportunities. Definitely worth the gamble at this price.
Group E (Italy, Czech Republic, United States, Ghana)
Italy finishes bottom (16/1)
Italy could be the surprise of the tournament, just like France at the 2002 World Cup. The Italians have a team full of veterans well past their prime. With the recent Serie A betting scandal on them, the team will be distracted from this tournament. We know how often Italians tie games in international tournaments. To finish last, they can draw against the USA and Ghana and lose to the Czechs. That’s not a far-fetched result, and definitely worth a try at 16/1.
Group F (Brazil, Croatia, Japan, Australia)
Japan to finish last (+110)
Brazil and Croatia should finish in the top two places, so third place will be a battle between Japan and Australia. With the Aussies led by one of the best coaches in the world, Guus Hiddink, they have a natural advantage. Japan have trouble finishing and should find this group frustrating.
Group G (France, Switzerland, South Korea, Togo)
Switzerland to Ranking (-150)
This has to be the strongest team in the group stage. Togo is a hopeless team and they are happy just to be here. South Korea is a shadow of the team it was four years ago. Without home field advantage, they will look like a mediocre team. Even France has an aging team that is by no means guaranteed to get first place. The Swiss are a quality team that can reach the last stages of this tournament.
Group H (Spain, Ukraine, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia)
Total Group Goals Under 17.5 (-143)
The bookies are assuming that Saudi Arabia will be business as usual and concede four or five goals per game. That shouldn’t be the case this time. The Saudis have hired a Brazilian coach and have been obsessively focused on defense. That comes at the expense of other aspects of their game, but despite everything, they will allow far fewer goals in this tournament. Tunisia doesn’t usually participate in high-scoring games, and both Ukraine and Spain aren’t exactly scoring powerhouses. This line assumes that there will be 2.91 goals per game, which is a lot to ask.