The Brett Favre era is over in New York. Yesterday, the Jets released the veteran quarterback leaving Favre as a free agent if he decides to come back again. The Jets were a major player in the draft over the past few weekends as they moved up to fifth through the Cleveland Browns and former coach Eric Mangini to select their QB of the future Mark Sanchez. With Sanchez’s selection, the Jets have now taken six quarterbacks in the first round in their 50-year history.
Joe Namath was taken higher than anyone, drafted No. 1 overall in 1965 and handing the Jets their only championship four seasons later. In terms of the JETS Jets Jets, the future is more than likely now that the starting QBs are Kellen Clemens and Eric Ainge. Brett Ratcliff was part of the deal that made Sanchez a Jet. So who will be the Jets’ starting quarterback when they open their season at Reliant Stadium against the Houston Texans on Sept. 13? Also, do any Jet QBs have any kind of fantasy potential for 2009?
In my opinion, the answers to those questions are Mark Sanchez and no. Although new head coach Rex Ryan has publicly stated to the media that he is a fan of Clemens and Ainge, he wouldn’t have moved to get Sanchez if that was really the case. I think Sanchez will start very early in the season, if not opening day, and I think he’ll eventually be a good NFL quarterback. However, he doesn’t have much to work with in terms of receivers and being a rookie playing at NY Sanchez is sure to take some bumps and bruises in his first year from both opposing players and the media. At this time, Jet QB is not worth drafting in leagues of 12 teams or less. In the 16-team leagues, you can take a flyer on Sanchez knowing QBs are in short supply in the bigger leagues, but don’t expect much from him this year.
Thomas Jones was a nice surprise for fantasy owners last year. Jones led the AFC in rushing with 1,312 yards and 13 TDs while adding an additional 207 receiving yards with 2 scores, accounting for over 1,500 total yards and 15 total TDs. Those are stats any fantasy owner can live with. Additionally, Leon Washington provided a nice change of pace for Jones with 800 total yards and 8 TDs.
Washington heated up as the season progressed and many fantasy owners began using Washington as a viable Flex option down the stretch. All is not well at Jet Land, however, as Jones has been absent from the Jets’ voluntary offseason program and I’m assuming he’s not happy with his current contract. Jones is scheduled to earn $900,000.00 in 2009 and could very well be in the running for more money. A nine-year veteran, Jones flourished last season with Favre under center, ironic considering he tore Favre apart after the season. However, if you look back to 2007 with Pennington and Clemens at quarterback, Jones managed just 1,119 rushing yards and a TD while being limited to 3.6 yards per carry; he was also facing many more eight- and nine-man fronts from defenses that challenged quarterbacks to beat them. Now that Favre is gone, Jones could very well be imagining his numbers going back to 2007 (or worse) and looking for a payday now.
If that’s the case, Jones isn’t showing his hand since neither he nor his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, are speaking yet. Here’s my take on Jones heading into 2009. While I think Jones will be productive again in 2009, I don’t think he’ll post comparable stats to last year. There are too many things working against him. First, Favre is gone and Jones will most likely play Sanchez as his quarterback, which means teams will again be stacking the box trying to stop him until Sanchez proves he can beat defenses deep. Plus, Washington will continue to eat up Jones’ stats as will Shonn Greene, the rookie running back from Iowa the Jets drafted in the third round. Greene is expected to succeed Jones and will certainly get some carries early on.
Most people will have Jones as a No. 1 low-end No. 2 high-end RB heading into this season, but I’m taking a more skeptical approach. Due to the fact that 2008 was the first season where Jones really shined alongside Washington and Greene as a factor in the mix, I’m treating Jones as a No. 3 RB or Flex option this year who’s worth a draft pick. in rounds 5-6. Most likely, however, Jones will be gone by then, as an unprepared fantasy owner will be sucked into his 2008 stats without doing due diligence on him. If you pick Jones, make sure you catch Greene with a late-round flyer. As for Washington; with Greene in the fold, look for his time in the backfield to decrease and the Jets will likely use him mostly for punts and punts. Maybe a late flight to Washington on draft day, but not much more than that.
In 2008, the Jets’ receiving corps was suspect at best. I know because I started Jerricho Cotchery every single week except bye. Week after week I tolerated his lack of production knowing that if I bench him he will surely score and my decision will bite me at the most inopportune moment. I stuck with him and he eventually rewarded me with aTD and some quality fantasy points in the championship game when the Jets were playing the Bills. With that being said, is there any chance he drafts Cotchery this year? No. Cotchery finished 2008 with 858 yards and 5 touchdowns and with Laveranues Coles gone to Cincinnati he will be the Jets’ No. 1 WR. However, the outlook looks even bleaker for Cotchery in 2009 than it did last year. Cotch was inconsistent all of last year and that was with a future Hall of Famer as his QB.
Sanchez will most likely start this year as a rookie, Cotchery’s stats are likely to be worse than they were in 2008. So far, the Jets haven’t tried to replace Coles, so teams will focus more on Cotchery than before and he will win. I don’t have that receiver across the field to take the pressure off of him. It’s simple for people to let someone else who recognizes his name write Cotchery and deal with the lack of production that comes with it. None of Jet’s other wide receivers at the moment, including Chansi Stuckey, who appears to be the team’s No. 2 wide receiver, is recruitable at this time. Before the start of the season, I’m definitely looking for the Jets to acquire some additional WRs to improve the lousy unit that it currently is. After Stuckey, I can honestly say (and this is saying something) that I have never heard of any of the other WRs they currently have on their roster.
TE Dustin Keller formed a good bond last year with Favre, catching 48 passes for 535 yards and 3 TDs as a rookie. As any fantasy owner knows, Favre loves to pitch at the TE, so naturally, he started looking for Keller. Keller is an amazing talent with the potential to flourish with anyone under center. Keller may benefit from Sanchez being the Jets’ starting quarterback this year, as the rookie will likely be looking for a security blanket underneath while he gets his feet wet in the NFL. Although Keller isn’t a No. 1 TE right now, he’s worth a later-round pick as a No. 2 option with the potential to deliver more depending on how Sanchez develops.
In fact, I think the Jets DST is an intriguing unit for next season. Obviously, we all know Coach Ryan masterminded the Ravens’ legendary defense and now he’s bringing his work to New York, where the Jets did pretty well defensively in 2008 and hope to improve. Ryan brings Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard with him from Baltimore and is sure to get more out of LB Vernon Gholston than Mangini ever did. Factor in Leon Washington’s kick-returning and punt-return skills and you realize this unit has the potential to start most weeks. Treat the DST Jets as a low-end No. 1 fantasy option for this year primarily because of their new coach.
In short, watch Jones and Keller in this summer’s drafts and see how DST shapes up heading into the 2009 season. Those are the only real viable fantasy options for the Jets at the time of publishing. Next Monday: The New England Patriots.